|DraftExpress: One guy who definitely needs to enter the DX database is Texas freshman Jonathan Holmes. 6-8 athletic PF w/a great body. Can make an open 3.|
H: 6' 8"|
W: 254 lbs
(22 Years Old)
|Pick: 48 in 2015 Mock Draft |
Rank 7 in NCAA Seniors
Rank 65 in Top 100 Prospects
High School: Antonian College Prep
Hometown: San Antonio, TX
|Year||Source||Height w/o Shoes||Height w/shoes||Weight||Wingspan||Standing Reach||Body Fat||No Step Vert||Max Vert|
|2014||Nike Skills Academy||NA||6' 8.5"||254||6' 10"||NA||NA||NA||NA|
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Top NBA Prospects in the Big 12, Part 7: Prospects #13-16|
September 15, 2014
After flashing some promise as a freshman, Jonathan Holmes struggled to make the step forward many expected during his sophomore season. In fact, by all accounts he took a step backwards. His scoring fell, from 13.0 points per 40 minutes pace adjusted down to 12.0, his PER dropped from 17.2 to 15.3, and his efficiency suffered as well, from a 56.7% true shooting percentage down to a disappointing 51.8%.
Holmes turned things around in a major way during his junior season, which saw the 6.8” forward assume a much bigger role in the Texas offense. While Holmes only saw a modest up-tick in playing time, up to 24.3 minutes, from 20.2, his per-minute scoring jumped drastically. Holmes scored 20.3 points per 40 minutes when adjusting for pace this past season on tremendous efficiency. Whether looking at his PER (which jumped to 26.4), true shooting percentage (59.8%), points per possession (1.23), or offensive rating (118.3), Holmes had an incredibly productive season from a per-minute standpoint, while doing so at an extremely efficient level.
An area of Holmes' game that has seen considerable growth over the years is as a jump shooter. The overall amount of jump shots that he takes hasn't changed all that much over the years, but the effectiveness of the shot has. That improvement is most evident in his development as a three point shooter. While he's still not consistent from the collegiate three point line, his 33.3% shooting at 2.6 attempts per game was by far the best of his career.
However, the area where this improvement has made the most positive impact may be in Holmes' post-game. Holmes flashes a relatively simple, but effective, back to the basket arsenal. He fights for and establishes position well, presents a good window for the entry pass, and has good touch on a hook shot over his left shoulder, which he is able to shield the ball well and get it off over bigger defenders.
Holmes supplements his hook shot by utilizing his improving jump shot in post-up situations. After establishing deep post position to put himself in position for a high percentage shot, Holmes uses this position for both a turnaround jump shot over his right shoulder, and also by facing up, where he is able to either get off a clean look at a very make-able jump shot or, if his man is aggressively guarding him, can use his quickness to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. Holmes' significantly improved effectiveness as a jump shooter, combined with his quickness, creates a fairly effective face-up threat.
The rest of Holmes' offensive game is still somewhat of a work in progress. His effectiveness as a jump shooter has led to more involvement in the pick and roll game, another area that could become a staple of his as he continues his development shooting the basketball. While he shows good promise as a face-up threat, and is able to be a weapon from 15 feet and in, his ball handling still needs improvement to fully take advantage of these opportunities, as he struggles to change direction and react to the rotating defense. He does move well off the ball, able to both find the weak points in a zone and also make himself available for passes from driving guards.
Holmes is able to make himself a factor on the glass on both ends of the court, where his pace adjusted output of 4.4 offensive rebounds and 6.9 defensive rebounds are both very good marks. On the offensive side, Holmes shows very good effort and pursuit fighting for position on the glass, and his athleticism, strength, and tenacity allow him to convert at a good clip after gathering these rebounds. On the defensive side of the ball, he shows good technique and timing.
On the defensive side of the court, Holmes generally gets in a good stance on the perimeter, and moves his feet relatively well for a player his size, while his strength allows him to hold his own down low. Although not an incredibly explosive leaper off of two feet, he shows good timing when going for blocks, allowing him to block 2.0 shots per 40 minutes pace adjusted. Perhaps most importantly, Holmes got his foul problems somewhat under control during his junior year. At 4.0 personal fouls per 40 minutes pace adjusted it's still somewhat of a problem, particularly on a young Texas squad that will need the senior Holmes to stay on the court, but it's a drastic improvement over the 6.1 and 5.7 fouls per 40 minutes pace adjusted that he committed during his freshman and sophomore seasons, respectively. He could still stand to avoid some of the reach-in and over-aggressive fouls that he tends to picks up, but last season was a positive step forward in that regard.
After a disappointing sophomore season, Jonathan Holmes had the kind of junior season that put him back on the map as a prospect, including big games towards the end of the season against talented front courts such as Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia, and Baylor. It will be interesting to see how much he is able to build off of the improvements he made in his jump shot last year, whether he is able to become more consistent from the collegiate three point line and beyond, and whether he can continue to refine his ball handling skills to fully take advantage of the opportunities his improved shooting give him as a face-up threat. With his strength, quickness, emerging threat shooting from the perimeter, and ability to contribute on the glass, he could garner some interest from NBA teams next June, particularly if he shows more ability to operate as a full time small forward, which would likely be his natural position at the next level.
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